How to Evaluate Mobile Game Ideas
We often hear the question: "How do I evaluate the viability of a game idea when I start working on it?". This is a very important question, because you don't want to end up spending several months developing something that won't work. And the worst part about creating a game without prior validation is that you often don't understand why it doesn't work once the game is complete. Many developers are unaware of their game's poor performance; you see that on day 1 you have 20%, and you just shrug and move on to the next game.
Here's another story. Every month, an average of 10,000 new games appear in mobile stores, and they occupy at least one spot, even in the most obscure category, at least in one country, for at least one day. All these apps come into focus when they become noticeable - gaining a few thousand downloads, earning a few thousand rubles.
How do you move your game from the group where most games die to the group of games that will earn over 100k over their lifetime?
Evaluating a Game Idea: Look for Similar Products
Game developers love to create games they enjoy playing. That's why we see so many Archero clones and Brawl Stars clones, from small and large developers worldwide. Creating a derivative product is fine, and with this approach you can make a game worth 100 thousand rubles.
But before diving headlong into development, even if you're sure your game is unique, it's worth checking if anyone else has already had a similar idea. And if similar games exist, you want to understand what their developers did to succeed.
To find similar apps, you can use the following approach: Search the App Store for keywords that reflect your idea. For example, 'Archero' yields several valuable results. However, this method won't work for all games: its effectiveness depends on how a particular store ranks search results and the competition for the keyword used.
After researching and compiling an extensive list of the most relevant games in the target subgenre, you can assess how unique your idea is. You should look at the game's design, monetization, art, and user interface. What motivators, player goals, features, and other decisions are tied to success. Evaluate whether you can create a product that can be confidently placed alongside the most successful examples you've found.
It's important to remember that looking only at top-charting benchmark apps can lead to survivorship bias. Therefore, it's crucial to also pay attention to less successful apps. Scouring the stores, you'll find millions of inglorious new releases that didn't make the cut. In every subgenre, there are usually many "corpses on the ground".
Developing Variations on Successful Games
Whatever your approach, it's very important to analyze others' mistakes before starting your journey in custom game development.
It's important to remember that only revenue from payments, subscriptions, and paid installs determines a game's chart position. Advertising revenue cannot be determined, and there is no analytics service that can provide you with sufficiently accurate estimates of ad revenue for mobile apps. However, some idea of ad revenue can be obtained by analyzing the distribution of app downloads by country. This data can be obtained for free in AppMagic.
In other words, if you see a game with a large number of downloads, be sure to identify the key countries where the bulk of traffic comes from. If most installs come from low-GDP-per-capita countries like India, Cambodia, or Brazil, then don't expect high ad revenue: from a million downloads in India, you might earn only 10-20k max.
Am I Targeting a Dying Market Segment?
If we look at how the revenue share of various mobile game genres has changed in the largest Western countries, the first thing we notice is a sharp decline in the red area, which represents RTS games.
In mobile games, there are no traditional RTS as we know them on PC; in the mobile context, RTS is typically a PVP game with asynchronous battles and city defense elements, like Clash of Clans.
The question is, why are games of this genre losing market share so quickly? Maybe there are no newcomers in this genre? But there are! Are they of poor quality? Actually, there's even a Star Wars game with building and battles. So what's happening?
When something (a game or genre) is not growing or is shrinking, the reason is always the same: developers cannot buy enough traffic to grow with positive ROAS (return on ad spend). In the case of a genre, this means that games from other genres with a similar audience can pay significantly more per install, causing them to claim the traffic.
Due to the competitive nature of mobile game development, combined with the concentration of knowledge and improved tooling that allows scaling user acquisition, the cost per install increases. Thus, a game (or genre) with a higher LTV (lifetime value) compared to competitors will not claim all traffic, but the balance will shift: those willing to pay more per install will get more traffic. The downside is that even games with low LTV can still acquire some users, but often the volume is so small that it doesn't justify the cost of maintaining the game and marketing team.
Seeing how quickly the share of RTS games is falling, it becomes clear that this genre is currently losing the battle for mobile traffic. This means that starting development of a game in this genre is extremely risky.
It remains to be added that in many genres, revivals and innovations occur from time to time, i.e., the application of new mechanics in already proven games, which opens up opportunities for entirely new generations of games. This is why it's important to track successful new releases in different genres if you don't want to miss the right moment.
I'll Create a Game, and Players Will Come Naturally
Um, no. Mobile games don't work like that. There is almost no free traffic in the stores. And what little there is won't allow you to earn money. Yes, there are a couple of exceptions: one is the ability to work without a contract, and the other is using referral traffic from the stores. But you cannot consider them as a key factor for attracting players and getting installs.
Yes, there are examples in the stores of games that went super viral and stuck firmly in the top charts without buying traffic (or buying very little). However, these stories mostly date back to times when there were still many unoccupied niches on the market - for example, ones corresponding to traditional games (card games, sports games, board games). You can also recall gaming 'unicorns' like Minecraft and Roblox, but keep in mind: these are rare exceptions to the general rule.
What to do if you don't yet know how user acquisition works? In any case, before starting custom game development, make sure that the genre or subgenre you choose is growing or at least stable, and that its leaders change from time to time, making room for new games.